RealEstateInThe239 Naples Bonita Springs Estero Real Estate Market Watch February 2016

Naples Homes for Sale – Bonita Springs Homes for Sale – Estero Homes for Sale

COMBINED INVENTORY – Naples, Bonita/Estero

Peak inventory moves to February…! – For the first time since January 2011 (and very likely prior to) we now see the annual peak inventory occurring in February. Of course, this could change each and every month but historically I cannot find when this happened through the years of data that I compile. What’s better than looking at pure inventory is to look at “months of inventory.” This is a gauge that computes how many months it will take to sell the entire available inventory at the current sales rate. High inventory isn’t necessarily bad if the sales rate can support it. Given the sale rate in January and February, the months of inventory marched upward from a nominal 7 months to 10 months in January and 13 months in February.

Do you have a southwest Florida property ready to sell? Call me now. Properties in the under $300,000 segment and the $300,000-$500,000 are in strong demand priced right.

The Naples market struggled to 500+ closed sales transactions which is down 17% month-over-month and down 27% year-over-year.

What’s going on? i) It’s an election year, always a time of uncertainty. ii) Buyers from Canada are all but out of the picture due mostly to the unfavorable exchange rate. Some Canadian property owners are now sitting on the sell side of the table again due to the exchange rate advantage when selling and a healthy ride up in their property values over the years. iii) Southwest Florida, despite low interest rates, sees around 60% or more of real estate sales in cash. The cash comes from selling primary residences up north and from securities and we all are painfully aware of the stock market as of late… This does put a damper on activity. iv) Prices are up. Pretty near a perfect storm.

CLOSED SALES – Naples, Bonita/Estero

The overall closed sale volume declines again in February – The Bonita/Estero market fared better than Naples and the month-over-month overall sales volume remained the same at 183 properties. On a year-over-year basis Bonita/Estero fell back some 26%.

Naples Homes for Sale

AVERAGE PRICE PAID

Up and Down  – Contributory to the pull back in sales volume are the steady increase in prices over the past few years which is causing pain for some buyers. Overall Naples priced paid is up 2% year-over-year but down 6% month-over-month.  Single-family homes are up 6% year-over-year while condos are about flat.  To put this into perspective, the average price paid for a property in February 2016 was $594,000, in February of 2015 it was $580,000, in February of 2014 it was $565,000, and in February of 2013 it was $373,000. In just three years the priced paid has increased 59%! In 2013, if you were thinking about a purchase in a few years…sticker shock.

The average price paid for a single-family home was $773,000 down from $798,000 and $411,000 for a condominium down from $453,000.

MEDIAN SALE PRICE

(The number where 50% of the homes sell above and below.)

Up and down.  – The overall median price paid for a property rose 9% year-over-year and decreased 6% month-over-month and it is now at $310,000 down from $330,000. The median price paid has increased each month on a year-over-year basis for 43 consecutive months.

The median price paid for a single-family home was $409,000 up from $398,000 and for a condominium it was $240,000 down from $263,000.

Bonita Springs – Estero

AVERAGE PRICE PAID

Up and down – We see a 13% increase year-over-year and a 14% decrease month-over-month. Year-over-year comparisons really tell the story, show the trends, and smooth out the bumps in the monthly numbers when the overall volume of data is relatively small as is the Bonita-Estero market. The numbers I use are all raw data and no attempt is made to seasonally adjust. The overall average purchase price in February 2016 was $415,000 and in February of 2013 it was $405,000. Over the past three years the increase has been 2.5%. The pace of price growth in Bonita/Estero is much more tempered than the Naples market. As happened during the 2004-2006 price run up, buyers are moving north from Naples seeking more value.

The average price paid for a single-family home was $537,000 down from $629,000 and $334,000 for a condominium down from $345,000.

MEDIAN SALE PRICE

(The number where 50% of the homes sell above and below.)

Up and down – The overall median price paid was up 22% year-over-year and it was down 5% on a month-over-month basis now at $305,000 for February down from $320,000. The year-over-year increase continues its streak now with 35 consecutive months at or above 100% on a year-over-year basis.

The median price paid for a single-family home is now at $385,000 down from $395,000 and for a condominium $268,000 up from $266,000.