Naples Real Estate Market Watch February 2019

Tidbits

Catching up on January & February 2019
BUYER’s MARKET, the picture cannot be clearer
BUYER’s MARKET, the value and opportunity is in resale

 These are not the “crazy days” of 2004, 2005, 2006
But make no mistake
Builders are building like mad, and new home construction pricing has no fear

Including Bonita Springs and Estero, FL

COMBINED INVENTORY – Naples, Bonita/Estero

Inventory is bumping against record territory… – The combined inventory for Naples, Bonita Springs, and Estero was up ~9% year-over-year and on a month-over-month basis it was down ~½%. In March of 2011 the inventory was nearly 9,500 properties For January and February of 2019 the inventory is again hovering around 9,000 properties. I don’t expect this to be an inventory breaking year as from here on out, we will start to see it decline as fewer and fewer new listings come on the market and seasonal purchasing (now pending sales) begin to close.

New listings added to the market are still outpacing the closed sale activity.  This will continue to grow deeper into a buyer’s market as reported last month and it has. There is now easily more than a 10 month supply of properties to sell at the current rate.

CLOSED SALES – Naples, Bonita/Estero

Sales volume Up but barely… –The combined overall closed sales volume for the Naples and Bonita-Estero markets showed an increase of 1% month-over-month but decrease some 12% on a year-over-year basis. The line charts for closed sales in both markets over a four year period clearly show a declining trend in sales activity.

The total combined sales volume for January was 805 properties from 930 the prior month and for February 814 properties from 805 properties.

NAPLES REAL ESTATE

AVERAGE PRICE PAID

Sanity… – The average price paid for a property increased at an annual rate of 4% per year for the past four years. Month-over-month is very bumpy. High-priced homes (many new construction) along the Gulf of Mexico and high-priced new condominium towers wrecks havoc with the averages on a month-over-month basis.

Naples overall average price paid (for February) was down year-over-year ~8% and it was down ~7% from the previous month. January month-over-month average closed sale price was up 29% from December!

The overall average price paid (for February) for all property types was $646,000 compared to $705,000 one year ago and compared to $694,000 in the prior month (January). The average price paid (for February) for a single-family home was $810,000 compared to $884,000 one year ago and $860,000 in the prior month (January). For a condominium the average price paid (for February) was $480,000 compared to $534,000 one year ago and $479,000 in the prior month (January).

For 2018 the overall average monthly closed sale price was $612,000 ($568,000 in 2017) and now for 2019 YTD the overall average monthly closed sale price is $670,000!

MEDIAN SALE PRICE

(The number where 50% of the homes sell above and below and a more sane way to measure the market.)

More sanity…– The median price paid for a property increased at an annual rate of ~2.9% per year over the last four years.

The overall median price for all property types was down ~3% (for February) year-over-year and up month-over-month ~4%. The overall median price paid (for February) was $339,000 compared to $350,000 one year ago and $325,000 the month prior (January). For February, 50% of all properties sold were less than $339,000 and 50% of all properties sold were more.

Single-family homes median price (for February) was $400,000 from $380,000 (January) and for condominiums the median price (for February) was $257,000 from $243,000 (January).

BONITA SPRINGS REAL ESTATE and ESTERO REAL ESTATE

AVERAGE PRICE PAID

Lackluster… – Over the past four years, the trend line for the overall average price paid for a property has been flat. The month-over-month results have been quite bumpy along the way with swings up and down as well as mini trends in one direction or another.

The overall average price paid for a property (for February) in the Bonita/Estero market increased ~14% year-over- and was up ~20% month-over-month.

The overall average price paid (for February) for all property types was $456,000 from $399,000 the previous year and $381,000 the previous month (January). The average price paid (for February) for a single-family home was $625,000 compared to $542,000 year-over-year and $469,000 the prior month (January). For condominiums the average price paid (for February) was $315,000 from $288,000 year-over-year and $301,000 the prior month (January).

For 2018 the overall average monthly closed sale price was $392,000 and now for 2019 the overall average monthly closed sale price YTD is $418,000. Off to a good start!

MEDIAN SALE PRICE

(The number where 50% of the homes sell above and below and a more sane way to measure the market.)
Flat… – Over the past four years, the trend line for the overall median price paid for a property was flat. The monthly excursions were small with a mini downward and upward trend in 2015 through the beginning of 2016.

The overall median price paid (for February) for all property types in the Bonita/Estero market was down ~1% year-over-year and down ~1% from the prior month (January). The overall median price paid for all property types was $287,000 compared to $290,000 one year ago.

The median price paid (for February) for a single-family home was at $370,000 compared to $390,000 one year ago, and for a condominium $247,000 compared to $228,000 one year ago.